"America Alone" - 1

America Alone is a novel published in 2006 and written by Mark Steyn that asserts "The End of the World As We Know It."  Yeah, there are the 2012 Mayan prophecies and other seemingly supernatural stuff, but Steyn actually gives  political, socioeconomic, and demographic reasons to why he thinks that the United States will collapse in the next few decades.  In part I of the novel, Steyn begins with the main essence of his argument: demography will screw over the Europeans, eventually Americans, and muslims will take over.  When I say demography, I mean population growth/decay.  You would think that I am talking about population growth with Europeans and Americans, but I'm actually talking about population decay.  Believe it or not, almost all native European country birth rates are below 2, which means that every two parents is producing less than two children, resulting in population decay.  "Scroll way down to the bottom of the Hot One Hundred top breeders and you'll eventually find the United States, hovering just at replacement rate with 2.11 births per woman," Steyn says.  "New Zealand's just below; Ireland's at 1.9; Australia, 1.7.  But Canada's fertility rate is down to 1.5, well below replacement rate; Germany and Austria are at 1.3, the brink of the death spiral; Russia and Italy are at 1.2; Spain, 1.1- about half replacement rate" (10).  This is pretty surprising, but what's even more intriguing is the former paragraph, where Steyn states, "Some countries are well above that: the global fertility leader, Niger, is 7.46; Mali, 7.42; Somalia, 6.76; Afghanistan, 6.69; Yemen, 6.58.  Notice what those nations have in common?  Starts with an I, ends with a slam.  As in: slam dunk" (10).  These fertility rates of predominantly Muslim countries are tremendously higher than those of Europeans and Americans.  It makes you wonder: does this really pose a problem for us in the future?

Steyn says it will cause a huge problem in the future.  He claims, "By 2050, Muslim fertility rates will be in decline, as they already are in some of the more developed Islamic countries.  But they'll be beginning their decline much later than Europe's, or Canada's, or Vermont's, and so they will have a huge demographic advantage.  And given that that's the sole advantage they'll have - the Middle East's only other resource, oil, will be a fast-evaporating pool by mid-century - this is Islam's demographic moment and they have to make the most of it" (19).  In other words, these Muslim countries will have a huge population advantage, and by sheer number will be able to overpower us; there's power in numbers.  Steyn makes a valid argument here and I agree with most of it.  However, I don't think things will get as bad as he says they will.  Like he said, these countries are funded by oil; once oil runs out or we find an alternative energy source, we will no longer fund them and their booming population.  The extremists' regime would grow in size in accordance to the growing population.  But with no money, these countries' already dwindling economies will collapse and what then?  The extremists may have the numbers and the will, but they don't have the firepower and the technology.  I may be totally wrong here though; I mean, underfunded terrorists still continue to blow themselves up successfully and take others with them.  It does seem to be the opposite for America: we have the firepower and technology, but we don't have the will.  It is an issue worth pondering about; I still am, as you could probably tell.